An analysis of repressed inflation in two transition economies

We construct a simple model that tests for repressed inflation by estimating a true rate of inflation that explains behavior of observed money demand. We estimate the model using quarterly data for Czechoslovakia and Poland. Although our results should be viewed as preliminary, given the imperfect nature of our data, we do have strong evidence that, prior to 1991, there was considerable repressed inflation in Poland, while there was essentially no repressed inflation in Czechoslovakia.This paper was funded by a World Bank project on formerly planned economies. We would like to thank Jong-goo Park for suggesting the topic, and Fabrizio Coricelli and Adnan Mazarei for helpful discussions. The views expressed here are our own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the World Bank.     

Capitalization versus Expensing: Evidence on the Uncertainty of Future Earnings from Capital Expenditures versus R&D Outlays

We propose and implement a new method to estimate the relation between R&D investments and the uncertainty of future benefits from those investments. The empirical analysis compares the relative contributions of current investments in R&D and PP&E to future earnings variability using a sample of roughly 50,000 firm-year observations from 1972–1997. Evidence is strongly consistent with the hypothesis that R&D investments generate future benefits that are far more uncertain than benefits from investments in PP&E. Our results should help the current discussion on accounting for R&D and the methodology might be helpful in standard setting in other contexts as well.     

Price Linkages in Asian Equity Markets: Evidence Bordering the Asian Economic, Currency and Financial Crises

This paper examines price linkages among Asian equity markets in the period surrounding the recent Asian economic, financial and currency crises. Three developed markets (Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore) and six emerging markets (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand) are included in the analysis. Multivariate cointegration and level VAR procedures are conducted to examine causal relationships among these markets. The results indicate that there is a stationary relationship and significant causal linkages between the Asian equity markets. Nevertheless, lower causal relationships that exist between the developed and emerging equity markets suggest that opportunities for international portfolio diversification in Asian equity markets still exist.     

Money and exchange rates in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg model

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on inflation, interest rates and exchange rates in a model with segmented asset markets developed by Grossman and Weiss (1983) and Rotemberg (1984, 1985). We find parameters for which real and nominal exchange rates in this model are (1) much more volatile than interest rates, inflation rates, and money growth rates, (2) highly correlated with each other, and (3) highly persistent. While this model fails to match the data in other important respects, it illustrates a potentially useful approach to modelling exchange rate behavior.     

Design principles for the development of measurement systems for research and development processes

Based on a comprehensive literature review and the activities of numerous case study companies, it is argued in this paper that performance measurement in R&D is a fundamental aspect to quality in R&D and to overall business performance. However, it is apparent from the case companies that many companies still struggle with the issue of R&D performance measurement. Excuses for not measuring are easily found, but there are also empirical examples and literature available with suggestions how it can be done. In this article this literature is reviewed and placed within the context of general performance control and contingency theory. Furthermore, the main measurement system design parameters are discussed and some basic system requirements are described as well as several design principles that can be useful for those who accept the challenge of establishing a meaningful measurement system.     

Colliery Closures and the Decline of the UK Coal Industry

In the 10 years after the 1984–5 miners' strike, employment by British Coal and the number of pits it operated fell by more than 90%. In this paper data for each of British Coal's collieries are used to analyse the pattern of pit closure. The pits that closed were systematically smaller, less productive and less profitable than those that survived. A model is estimated to capture the degree to which closure decisions reflect performance variables, and it is found that low productivity was the most important indicator of vulnerability to closure. However, closures were by no means exclusively concentrated on the worst performers, and many of the pits that were closed at the end of the period had achieved very large increases in productivity over the years preceding closure.     

Trade costs, firms and productivity

This paper examines the response of U.S. manufacturing industries and plants to changes in trade costs using a unique new dataset on industry-level tariff and transportation rates. Our results lend support to recent heterogeneous-firm models of international trade that predict a reallocation of economic activity towards high-productivity firms as trade costs fall. We find that industries experiencing relatively large declines in trade costs exhibit relatively strong productivity growth. We also find that low-productivity plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die; that relatively high-productivity non-exporters are more likely to start exporting in response to falling trade costs; and that existing exporters increase their shipments abroad as trade costs fall. Finally, we provide evidence of productivity growth within firms in response to decreases in industry-level trade costs.     

Downside Risk

Economists have long recognized that investors care differentlyabout downside losses versus upside gains. Agents who placegreater weight on downside risk demand additional compensationfor holding stocks with high sensitivities to downside marketmovements. We show that the cross section of stock returns reflectsa downside risk premium of approximately 6% per annum. Stocksthat covary strongly with the market during market declineshave high average returns. The reward for beasring downsiderisk is not simply compensation for regular market beta, noris it explained by coskewness or liquidity risk, or by size,value, and momentum characteristics. (JEL C12, C15, C32, G12)     

Employee Share Ownership: Safeguarding Investments in Human Capital

Valuable investments in human capital, it has been argued, may be at risk in much the same way as shareholder equity capital. In this paper, we develop and test the hypothesis that employee share ownership (ESO) may be used to encourage and safeguard investments in human capital. Using the Workplace Employee Relations Survey 1998, we examine the empirical link between the likelihood of ESO and the presence of valuable human capital. Adjusted for possible structural influences, empirical evidence suggests considerable support for our hypothesis.     

Management earnings forecasts and other forward-looking statements

We identify forward-looking statements (FLS) in firms’ disclosures to distinguish between “forecast-like” (quantitative statements about earnings) and “other”, or non-forecast-like, FLS.  We show that, like earnings forecasts, other FLS generate significant investor and analyst responses. Unlike earnings forecasts, other FLS are issued more frequently when uncertainty is higher. We then show that earnings-related FLS are more sensitive to uncertainty than quantitative statements, suggesting that managers are more likely to alter the content than the form of FLS when uncertainty is higher.  Our study indicates that incorporating other FLS into empirical measures provides a more comprehensive proxy for firms’ voluntary disclosures.